David Hume on Miracles, Evidence, and Probability
David Hume (1711-1776) is widely considered to be the greatest philosopher to have written originally in English. I am particularly interested in his epistemology, philosophy of science, and philosophy of religion.
You can find my book, David Hume on Miracles, Evidence, and Probability, a defense of the argument against believing in miracles, here. It is available in hardback, paperback, and ebook.
David Hume’s argument against believing in miracles has attracted nearly continuous attention from philosophers and theologians since it was first published in 1748. Hume’s many commentators, however, both pro and con, have often misunderstood key aspects of Hume’s account of evidential probability and as a result have misrepresented Hume’s argument and conclusions regarding miracles in fundamental ways. This book argues that Hume’s account of probability descends from a long and laudable tradition that goes back to ancient Roman and medieval law. That account is entirely and deliberately non-mathematical. As a result, any analysis of Hume’s argument in terms of the mathematical theory of probability is doomed to failure. Recovering the knowledge of this ancient tradition of probable reasoning leads us to a correct interpretation of Hume’s argument against miracles, enables a more accurate understanding of many other episodes in the history of science and of philosophy, and may be also useful in contemporary attempts to weigh evidence in epistemically complex situations where confirmation theory and mathematical probability theory have proven to be less helpful than we would have hoped.
Listed as one of the editor’s three choices for books on the history of mathematics in The Best Writing on Mathematics 2020, ed. Mircea Pitici (Princeton University Press).
Leland Harper’s review in the journal Religious Studies (2020):
"very straightforward & convincing argument"
"points out the crucial flaws in each [Hume critic's] arguments"
"refreshingly concise style"
"pulls no punches"
"excellent addition to the bookshelves of Hume scholars, epistemologists &...philosophers of religion"
John Loftus added a nine-page appendix about my book to his anthology, The Case Against Miracles (Hypatia Press, 2019), while his book was in production. He gives a very favorable summary of my argument, calling it “a major defense of Hume on miracles.”
My original (2005) paper on this topic published in Hume Studies, “Of Miracles and Evidential Probability: Hume’s ‘Abject Failure’ Vindicated,” is here.
Coming soon (I hope): “Hume on Contrary Religions: Why It is Irrational to Believe that your Religious Beliefs are True.”